The Pandemic Exposes Inequality.

Education     Social Status    Politics    Corruption

The World is Rapidly Changing.
Is it Getting Out of Control?

People Seemingly Making Choices Against Their Own Interests.

We can list many things that are going wrong in the world, have been going wrong for many years, and even though we KNOW, it seems impossible to resolve the problem.

The United Nations doesn't work, there is corruption and abuse.
The Security Council, is a failure that perpetuates war and suspicion.
Climate change is our biggest problem, but we choose to do nothing. "Blah, Blah, Blah" as young Greta Thunberg says.
Human slavery and sex trafficking continues.
World financial markets are a mess. Money printing sustains too many economies.
The sale of military hardware is the foundation-stone for too many jobs.
Too many countries and companies still see coal and oil reserves as asset to be sold.
The manufacture and sale of illicit substances fills the coffers of criminal gangs.
People in the developed world are losing their jobs as industries re-locate.
Jobs in the "service economy" too often are "bullshit jobs with no future" and the service offered is often fake or valueless.

There is a Covid-19 Pandemic, and the political leaders of the world completely failed to understand what it was. When the WHO  produced a plan to vaccinate the whole world in a systematic way, world leaders actively sabotaged that plan, in favour of their own electorates.

The point is that there is nothing new here. The world is in trouble and there is no real prospect of anything changing until there is some very severe and disastrous future event. Business as usual has it's own momentum and like the virus, will continue until business as usual becomes impossible. Do we need to suffer an environmental or financial disaster before that happens? We expect so. Covid-19 provides an easy to see example, of how humanities good intention and global systems fail, when politicians seek a short term advantage, and when public trust is undermined.

Conspiracy, Magical Thinking and Religious Belief.

For me this is a new insight, and I thank Journalist Sarah Chayes, and Psychologist Dr, Mattias Desmet for their knowledge and wisdom. They give us two ways seeing the problems that face us. This takes time to read, but it's worth it.

Sarah Chayes, lived in Afghanistan, but has also been a researcher in many less developed countries including Nigeria. Corruption is a constant. The most corrupt people are the most educated. They are the ones who have both the status and the best opportunity. Corruption exists not only with the politicians and warlords, but through the public service. The original corrupt civil servants were from colonial countries. At that time, corruption was one means of extracting excess profit out of the colony.

With self government, often the main change was to direct the funds into the hands of different people, but the system that milked the country of it's future remained. This explains why groups the Taliban, Boko Haram and ISIS, even ordinary village people, are often opposed to education, and opposed to the new industry dominated by foreigners. They might say: "Both the educated and the foreigners steal what is rightfully ours."

Politicians Are Named in The Pandora Papers

The evidence that this continues is in the Pandora Papers, a giant data dump detailing the offshore tax activities of the world's rich elites. The list of those implicated this time around includes Colombian singer Shakira, Spanish crooner Julio Iglesias and former German top model Claudia Schiffer.

A total of 336 former or current politicians are also tied to offshore money via the release. The most common countries of origin for them were the Ukraine and Russia, but also many places in Latin America and Africa. The UK was the only other European nation in the top 10 of countries with the most politicians named in the release. Among them are former prime minister Tony Blair and more will be named in the upcoming days.

A constantly updated list on Wikipedia currently shows around a dozen current heads of state which appear in the leak, among them King Abdullah II of Jordan, the Emir of Dubai and prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid, as well as the presidents of Azerbaijan, Montenegro, Kenya, Ecuador, Gabon, Chile, the Ukraine and the Republic of the Congo. The prime ministers of the Czech Republic, Cote d`Ivoire, Lebanon and the emir of Qatar can also be found among those tied to offshore money havens.

Terrorism and Rebellion

Little wonder then that many people see no possibility that any government in power will be less corrupt, so they turn to God, or to an idealised version of Sharia Law, or fundamentalist Christianity, that they hope will be better. They rebel (even when it's against their own interests)  because there seems to be no legitimate way to stop the ongoing exploitation. Groups like the Taliban, Boko Haram or ISIS, don't arise without reason. There are long standing grievances, too often with legitimate roots, about systematic disadvantage and discrimination that give rise to groups like this.

Look at the current situation in Lebanon. 30 years of political and economic failure, enabled by systematic corruption, that pretends to have democratic support.

There is some of that in the developed world too. Groups like Greenpeace, Black Power, or Extinction Rebellion, are also saying the system is corrupt and destructive. Not only does a corrupt system create more inequality within a nation, it also destroys the environment as the resources of the country are extracted at the lowest cost, to be sold on at a much higher price.

We might like to argue that elections provide a legitimate way to change the government and the law, but that's not the experience of ordinary people, even in the developed world. In one way or another the same people manipulate the situation to retain power. Often this happens long before the election is held. Who can stand is restricted. Who is eligible to vote is controlled. The running of the election itself is likely to be controlled to allow ballot stuffing or for ballots to go missing. Sarah Chayes explains that in the USA over the last 20 years the power of the status quo has been reinforced by controlling the election of Supreme Court judges. Essentially making it impossible for some people to be considered, and by promoting the selection of a business friendly (and perhaps anti-abortion) conservative person.

In the USA both political parties have actively participated in a Gerrymander of electorate boundaries, often to create safe seats for themselves, but sometimes to split natural majorities and so to deny representation to the majority group.

"First Past the Post" or "Winner Takes All" voting systems tend to entrench two parties which have a keen interest in preventing the rise of any third force. They unite to prevent real change.

Little wonder then, that when good paying jobs in the "rust belt" of America are disappearing, and where to poor in the Southern USA see that regardless of what the community wants, the same group of people with the same ideas remain in power. Nothing changes. The vote is powerless, because the system is intended to retain the status quo. Ordinary people often feel, that their views are never reflected in the government.

In the USA for instance both the Democrats and the Republicans, strongly represent the interests of their political donors. Money from the same sources sustains the function of both parties. That probably explains why Donald Trump got elected, by people who were disenchanted with the system. They voted for a non-politician, against the establishment, but also we would argue against their own interests.

This continues, with Covid-19, the poor and disadvantaged don't trust the government. They know that the powerful steal from them and that when they are "forced" to do something that usually results in things getting worse for those at the bottom. To rebel seems the right thing to do. So people invent all sorts of reasons not to get vaccinated. This is against their own interests, but it's still widely supported.

Dr Mattias Desmet, explains the same situation in a different way. In his view, the basic situation is that people feel no strong connection with the community in which they live, their lives are going nowhere, and there is loss of hope. This creates a generalised anxiety from which there is no escape. That tension is usually held under control, but surfaces strongly if some event triggers a community reaction. Examples might be "Occupy Wall Street", the "Me Too" protests, "Black Lives Matter", or the refusal to vaccinate in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic.

People feel helpless, but they develop a narrative, a story that unites them and gives their action meaning and purpose. Now they belong to something more important, the group, the tribe that is engaged in a heroic battle against evil. "Give Me Freedom to be ME". The current situation is intolerable, we will take action to protect ourselves, in our own way.

According to Maslow's Heirachy of Needs, people trapped at the bottom of the pyramid can benefit by joining together in "solidarity". This gives them a sense of purpose, hope for the future, a place in a community, some self esteem, and respect for themselves and others in the group.

Hence the title of this section: "Conspiracy, Magical Thinking and Religious Belief." The disadvantaged make up their own story, that explains both why they are disadvantaged, and what they should do about it. This plan, is a shared narrative that gives people a sense of solidarity, and a conviction to live by. Anxiety is replaced by a sense of purpose. In the process an enemy is identified, and extreme anger may be demonstrated. There is always a leader who will try to take advantage of this unfortunate situation.

Vaccination Success and Anti-viral Treatments

In the last six months some five billion doses of the several approved vaccines have administered. This program has been hugely successful in four ways, in limiting the number of people the virus can easily attack, in reducing the number of infected people, in keeping the number of people in hospital down and in reducing the death rate.

The vaccines are not 100% successful in preventing an infection, but depending on the vaccine you got, your protection is better than 80% effective. It's true that, people who got the infection naturally and recovered, have even better protection, but they too can be re-infected. If you have been infected naturally, and you've recovered, it's still suggested that the vaccine is an additional line of defence you can take.

Mandatory Vaccination

Vaccination will in the future be a condition of employment in many vocations, and for access to bars and restaurants, and for airline travel. In the USA and Europe businesses were first to make this move to mandatory vaccination, first of all for staff and in some cases for customers too. In the USA, vaccination for all health care workers, and for all government employees is slowly becoming mandatory.

While there are news items saying that huge number of people will refuse vaccination and that services will collapse, that doesn't seem to be real. For instance at a hospital employing over 5000 people, just 39 were not vaccinated 7 days before the deadline for ending employment was reached.

Vaccination Passports

The UK considered adoption a Vaccination Passport, as proof of vaccination for entry to bars, restaurants and theaters, but chose not to not to go that far. We will know in a month or so if that was a good decision or not. In most places in Europe, Vaccination Passports are being implemented. That seems to be our future. Get vaccinated and use your passport to engage in community social activities and travel.

Across Africa, and in most of South America, vaccines are not yet available. It might be three years before they get supply. How are they coping? Very poorly if you take the case of Brazil. On the other hand India seems to be doing OK now, after a disastrous start. (Although the published information is suspect.)

Anti-viral Treatments

As I write, Merck is announcing an oral anti-viral capsule, that for the cost of US$700 for a course will reduce hospitalisation rates by 50%, if administered early in the infection. This treatment is called Molnupiravir, and a course consists of 10 capsules. They have ceased trials, and applied for early emergency use approval. There are several other products also in development.

Africa

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has loaned Tanzania over $567 million (€479 million) to fight the pandemic after the country initially dismissed the danger of the disease. The President, John Maguire, a Christian and COVID-skeptic claimed that there was no Covid-19 in Tanzania. He died of Covid in July, 2021.

The new president Samia Suluhu Hassan, was vaccinated on live television in July to start the fightback. Tanzania only then launched a vaccination drive.

The third wave of the pandemic saw the economy shrink to 4.8% mainly from the lack of tourism. Increasing poverty and debt risk have forced the economy into a downward spiral.

Europe

In Germany, Health Minister Jens Spahn has spoken of a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" as he urged people to receive their COVID jabs to prevent health care services from being overwhelmed in the colder months.

In Switzerland, and many other European countries people will need to show a COVID Vaccination Certificate to enter bars, restaurants and health clubs. The move is an effort to ease pressure on hospitals overwhelmed by patients from the country’s fourth wave of the virus

.

Across Europe the virus is assumed to be in the environment, and each person is now responsible for their own protection, since everyone has had the opportunity to be vaccinated. Vaccine Passports have been widely adopted and are popular. Testing of the general population for Covid-19 is stopping, in favour of clinical testing only.

In future Covid cases will not be a statistic that is measured, only the number of people admitted to hospital will be reliably counted.

WHO - Vaccine Equity

The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for countries to avoid vaccine booster shots until the end of the year. There are millions of high risk people around the world who have yet to receive a dose.

Speaking to journalists WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: "I will not stay silent when the companies and countries that control the global supply of vaccines think the world's poor should be satisfied with leftovers."

Richer countries have pledged more than one billion doses to poorer countries, but Tedros said less than 15% of that has materialized.

Asia

South Korea is in the process of drawing up plans for how the country can live more normally once 80% of the adult population is vaccinated, a goal the country believes is attainable by late October. The strategy will be implemented in phases as South Korea is currently in the middle of its worst wave of infections since the pandemic began.

Don't Make Yourself a Willing Host for Covid-19

Meanwhile, if you are in a country where the vaccine is available, please remove yourself as an easy target for the vaccine. The health principle here is simple. The vaccine doesn't care what you think, it's purpose is to spread itself. What YOU THINK is critical. How do you protect yourself? First be healthy, in particular don't be overweight, or diabetic or a smoker. Those issues are ALL avoidable. Secondly, be physically fit if you can be. Third, eat well and check out your vitamin D status. Low vitamin D is common in the community and is a characteristic of hospitalised Covid-19 patients. Keep in your bubble, don't mix with strangers, especially indoors. Then get vaccinated, two jabs, at least 5 weeks apart. The process of becoming fully protected takes time. About 7 or 8 weeks from the time of your first dose.

The Driving Force - The Covid-19 Virus

Understand that, the virus has no mind, has no intention, does not have any feelings at all. The Delta variation of the Covid-19 virus has one function, to continue to exist, to multiply and spread itself as far as possible. The amount of viral contamination spread by each infected person is massive. But unless that viral infection finds a human host it quickly loses viability. The virus has no respect for your sincerely held beliefs. If you are a potential host, the virus thanks you. The virus needs your co-operation to survive.

Your purpose might be to freely choose not to be vaccinated. If you live in a place like Taiwan or New Zealand where public health measures have up to now been successful, that might seem to be a sensible conservative action. But in both Taiwan and New Zealand vaccination rates are less than desirable, now that the Delta variant of Covid-19 is at large. We can assume that in every country, from now on, Delta is in the wild, trying to sustain itself by finding new unprotected hosts.

The Quality of Leadership - Public Health

It's abundantly clear, that the quality of leadership in each country made a huge difference to how much damage the virus caused in each community. That begins with medical expertise and knowledge. Followed up by public health preparedness and expertise. In the beginning, Chinese doctors quickly identified the Covid-19 virus as new, described as "unique." In Italy and the UK, doctors quickly identified first cases.

(See the earlier page (31 March, 2021) for additional detail about the spread of the virus.)

It's now that public health officials dropped the ball. When you read the time line of what happened in China, Italy, the UK and the USA, you can see why the virus didn't raise too much concern, and why "super spreading events" were allowed to continue, into the new year and until the end of February, 2020.

In Italy, early on, there was great confidence in the high quality of the medical system, and the health systems ability to deal with the virus. But they didn't really know what they were dealing with, and quickly the health system was over-whelmed. That mistake was made in the USA and the UK too.

It was slightly different in Asia, where the Mers Virus had caused an enormous number of deaths and where the use of face masks had become a well respected public health measure. Taiwan was the country that had the most initial success in dealing with the virus. New Zealand and some of the Pacific Islands did well too, but that was mostly a reflection of isolation, and some weeks delay before the virus arrived.

Both Taiwan and New Zealand had low vaccination uptake because it seemed that the virus was under control, public health controls worked well until suddenly they didn't.

The Quality of Leadership - Political

By now the politicians were involved. Almost everywhere the politicians made a complete mess of understanding what was happening and responding in an appropriate way. So they promised that "everything was completely under control" and a month later with infections climbing rapidly, and deaths beginning to tally up, these assurances were repeated. Now the virus is well ahead of the response. Lock-downs were attempted, but they were half-hearted, and contact tracers were overburdened with cases and the lack of resources. Although in places like New Zealand and Australia they proved that a strong lock-down and quick contact tracing could suppress the virus, that was not the case in most countries, where the public health system was inadequate, and the lock-downs started too late.

Vaccination - the Success and the Failure

The WHO, said early, that the secret to controlling the virus would be vaccination, and that for perhaps two years or more there would be a shortage of vaccine. They proposed that the supply of available vaccine be evenly rationed to rich and poor countries alike, with those most at risk getting the vaccine first. "Nobody is safe unless everyone is safe." But in the USA and the UK, and in India, politicians were under pressure. The promises that they had the situation under control were groundless, the death rate was rising and public anger was too. Donald Trump, and Boris Johnson both began to order and even pay in advance for vaccines, so that they would get preferential treatment when the vaccines became available. This action completely destroyed and possibility that the WHO program to ration vaccines and to vaccinate both poor countries and rich countries in a fair way.

So we have what we've got. Over 6 billion doses of the vaccine have been injected. 12% of the world's population has at least had the opportunity to become vaccinated. 88% of the world's population has almost no access to vaccines. As a result the virus is at large in most countries, and free to spread and mutate as it goes. If we're lucky the virus will quietly become less dangerous and less virulent. If we are unlucky it will mutate in such a way that the current vaccines are ineffective and we'll start again.

Dr Mark Jaben (5 minutes)

Published by: Haywood County NC Health and Human Services

A short video about the consequences of letting Covid-19 catch up with you before you have immunization. Don't let the virus use you to spread itself to other people.