Politicians in least 75% of countries promised to protect people from Covid-19, and failed.

Health System Failure? Public Health Failure?

Selected Countries - Death Rates

Listed according to the number of Deaths per/mil of the population.

Data as of 31 March, 2021

Diamond Princess

30 April 2020: Population 0.0037 million. Covid-19 deaths 13. Deaths per/mil 3514

This shows that the cruise ship deaths were very high, because at that time very little was known about the virus, and because of problems trying to create a quarantine area on a ship designed for passenger social interaction.

Belgium

Population 11.6 million. Covid-19 deaths 23083. Deaths per/mil 1985

United Kingdom

Population 68.1 million. Covid-19 deaths 126826. Deaths per/mil 1861

The UK had it's first cases in March, 2020. Two Chinese people; one died on 5 March but the other one also died. The UK didn't take this as a signal to get ready for a pandemic. They had time, but they wasted it.

Following this, on 3rd April 2020, PM Boris Johnson said, “Our country remains extremely well prepared.” “We already have a fantastic NHS,” the national public health service, “fantastic testing systems and fantastic surveillance of the spread of disease.”

In fact the UK had a PCR test capability of 1500 tests a day. Tests were only available at hospitals. They tried to do contact tracing but the effort was abandoned, they couldn't cope with the numbers. Emergency wards were set up, because hospitals couldn't cope.

"Exposed: the real scandal at our borders."

26 April, 2021

From Led By Donkeys, with Hassan Akkad.

At a political level, the UK government was completely out of touch with the reality of the situation. In their mind, they had a task to do. The old task, to make the UK economy strong again. They couldn't imagine how a virus that can't be seen, and isn't understood anyway, might upset that plan. They were trapped in their own group-think, making promises that would not be kept.

Another critical mistake was to diagnose elderly patients with Covid-19, and to conserve hospital beds, they sent patients to residential care homes. The staff there had little or nothing in the way of protective clothing. The care homes like hotels were build so the people could meet and have a social life. It wasn't possible to create quarantine conditions in those places. Of course that spread the disease rapidly.

Italy

Population 60.4 million. Covid-19 deaths 110704. Deaths per/mil 1833

Despite the excellent work of Prof. Andrea Crisanti, Italy was very badly hit by Covid-19. Surprising, because Italy has very good hospitals and well trained medical staff. There were limited PCR testing facilities, and these were mostly located at hospitals. Testing was only offered to people with symptoms. The hospitals themselves became sources of new infection. There was no random testing in the community. There was no contact tracing. In Lombardy, the hospital system was quickly overwhelmed. A country with a very good medical health system, failed badly because the public health system had been neglected. (The USA failed in a similar way.)

United States of America

Population 213.6 million. Covid-19 deaths 568,496. Deaths per/mil 1710

Despite the ridiculous claim by President Donald Trump that the USA was "doing better than anyone," it's perhaps surprising that the USA isn't at the top of this list. USA was handicapped by the "China Virus" idea. So early in the piece, air travel from China was banned but travel from Europe was unrestricted. There was a feeling of security, the American medical system was "the best in the world." America had the ability to face the greatest challenges and win. President Trump's idea of American Greatness was widely believed.

President Donald Trump's response to Covid-19 has been under fire since the first cases began appearing in the United States in late January 2020. Here's how his response has evolved since then to late March 2020, when state and federal governments began to take drastic measures to curb its spread.

Time lines are important here again. (Chinese New Year 21st January 2020, and people were allowed to travel. By the 31st January outbreaks were occurring in 25 countries already. By the 20th January, Dr. Zong Nanshan, confirmed that person to person transmission of the virus was occurring. But the WHO had NOT yet told everyone to lock down.)

In New Orleans, Mardi Gras begins on 6th January with "Twelfth Night Revelers" and a Society Ball. The celebrations are planned a year in advance and go on for almost two months. The main parade was held on 25th February. The Mardi Gras became a massive hot spot for Covid-19, and many deaths occurred. New Orleans locked down on 20th of March.

Why? There was no knowledge of asymptomatic transfer of the Covid-19 virus at the time. (Prof. Andrea Crisanti's proof of asymptomatic transmission in Italy, was just beginning as Mardi Gras ended, and wasn't widely known until July, 2020.) On the 13th of February Sarah A, Babcock, the Director of Public Health for New Orleans, reported that there were only 13 known cases in the USA, and that the risk of people attending Mardi Gras catching Covid-19 was low. At this time the build up to Mardi Gras included nightly pre-Lenten street gatherings involving thousands of people in festival mood. This of course was silently setting alight the tinder of Covid-19, undetected, but creeping through the community.

On 24th of February President Trump tweeted; "The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA."

On 25th February as the major parade was happening, there were still only 15 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the USA. The Mayor LaToya Cantrell, couldn't consider cancelling Mardi Gras based on what was known. The Lockdown message from Mark Ryan the Director of the WHO health emergencies program was released on 22 of March. As with the Chinese New Year, the timing was unfortunate.

President Trump continued to display unhelpful leadership, talking down the seriousness of the virus, denying new waves of infection, and claiming that they were doing too much testing. Lacking leadership from the President, State Governors took action of their own, often being admonished by the President for doing so.

Faulty umberella There was a clear directive from Mark Ryan at the WHO on 22 March. "Lock down, lock down hard, and implement a range of Public Health measures." It's essential to do BOTH. In the USA, there were short lock downs, partial lock downs, and it varied from state to state. Public Health measures, quarantine, testing, contact tracing and mask wearing were or were not attempted, depending on the state. Public Health offered broken umbrella for protection when only a real umbrella will work.

This is a fail grade for the USA. The USA is not yet "Great Again." But politics is a funny beast. 57% of Republican voters believe that the death rate in the USA is "acceptable."

Spain

Population 46.8 million. Covid-19 deaths 75541. Deaths per/mil 1615

Brazil

Population 213.6 million. Covid-19 deaths 330,297. Deaths per/mil 1546

Dated March 2021: Brazil has registered a record number of Covid-related deaths in 24 hours. Health authorities reported over 4,000 deaths, as new variants fuel a surge in cases that has overwhelmed hospitals.

The total death toll in Brazil is now over 330,000 which is second only to the US.

However, President Jair Bolsonaro has refused to mandate a nationwide lockdown, and opposes local lockdowns, claiming the damage to the economy outweighs health risks.

This is a doubtful number. The system was overwhelmed.

France

Population 64.5 million. Covid-19 deaths 96280. Deaths per/mil 1473

Sweden

Population 10.2 million. Covid-19 deaths 13498. Deaths per/mil 1330

Sweden has a tradition of using expert committees and following scientific advice; generally taking matters out of the hands of politicians. Mostly that works very well. Maybe not this time.

In the beginning the advice of the experts seemed to be an ideal solution. There was no lockdown, no social distancing, and only a lose limit on crowds. There was also no focus on testing, on source identification or on contact tracing. It was expected that "herd immunity" would at some stage begin to protect the population. That may be why a change of policy was delayed, when it became obvious that the policy was failing.

The virus gained an upper-hand. Sweden's infection rate and death toll was 5 to 10 times more than neighbouring countries. In particular the rest home buildings in which the elderly were living, like many hotels, proved very difficult places to prevent the transmission of disease. Ventilation systems, designed to conserve heat, became common vectors to transfer the virus through the building.

The Swedish experts were slow to adapt to Covid-19, but they did eventually change policy, even as late as December 2020, recognising that the WHO, advice was the most reliable policy.

Russia

Population 146 million. Covid-19 deaths 100017. Deaths per/mil 685

Canada

Population 38 million. Covid-19 deaths 23050. Deaths per/mil 607

Germany

Population 84 million. Covid-19 deaths 77504. Deaths per/mil 923

Denmark

Population 5.8 million. Covid-19 deaths 2415. Deaths per/mil 416

Norway

Population 5.5 million. Covid-19 deaths 673. Deaths per/mil 123

India

Population 1391 million. Covid-19 deaths 164655. Deaths per/mil 118

This number seems doubtful.

New added 26 April, 2021: YES the above number was clearly wrong.

Leadership is Critical Modi Fails in India

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is facing mounting criticism for allowing Hindu festivals and attending mammoth election rallies that experts suspect accelerated the spread of infections. We see repeated the same misjudgment's made by President Donald Trump and Boris Johnson of the UK.

India coped quite well with tie first wave of Covid-19. In November 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that the pandemic was over. They planned election in five states early in 2021. At the end of January India's Health Ministry confirmed a record low of about 9100 new daily cases.

Crematorium Pyres at Bhopal

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in January 2021, had declared victory over Covid-19, and boasted that India was the “world's pharmacy,” a global producer of vaccines and a model for other developing nations. Experts say complacency from the government and the people has helped sow the seeds for a devastating second wave.

At an election rally in early April 2021, Modi barely managed to hide his delight when he declared to his supporters in West Bengal state: “I have never seen such huge crowds.” At that time, the virus had already started to rear its head again and experts were warning a deadly surge was inevitable. A week later he was blaming a very timid media for undermining public confidence in the Public Health System, by reporting a growing number of Covid-19 cases.

Dr. Krutika Kuppalli, assistant professor of medicine in the division of infectious diseases at the Medical University of South Carolina, called the government's premature declarations of victory over the pandemic a “false narrative,” which encouraged people to relax health measures when they should have continued strict adherence to physical distancing, wearing masks and avoiding large crowds.

Official death tolls are clearly wrong. At the city's Bhadbhada Vishram Ghat crematorium, workers said they cremated more than 110 people on Saturday, even as government figures in the entire city of 1.8 million put the total number of virus deaths at just 10. There's no point in updating the numbers. They are wrong.

Like after the Mardi Gras in New Orleans, the situation is now out of control.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to address tens of thousands of people at state election rallies is under fire. He is also wearing the blame for letting Hindu devotees congregate for the Kumbh Mela festival. The Kumbh Mela festival began in early January 2021, and runs until the end of April. Footage of Kumbh Mela showed tens of thousands of Hindus gathered daily at the Ganges. And as the infection rate continues to rise, India find that it cannot supply enough oxygen for patients.

India had an entire year to prepare for the inevitable – and it didn't. India is not alone, across the world politicians failed in their duty to the public. It can't be that they are all evil people, it must be that they were unable to understand and adapt to new circumstances. They did what they knew, based on misunderstanding, and false confidence, and helped create disaster.

Australia

Population 25.7 million. Covid-19 deaths 909. Deaths per/mil 35

New Zealand

Population 5 million. Covid-19 deaths 26. Deaths per/mil 5

Singapore

Population 5.9 million. Covid-19 deaths 30. Deaths per/mil 5

China

Population 1440 million. Covid-19 deaths 4636. Deaths per/mil 3

This number is so low, the statistic has to be questioned.

Taiwan

Population 23.8 million. Covid-19 deaths 10. Deaths per/mil 0.4

Taiwan is a very special case. Excluded from membership of the WHO by China, they understood that they had to rely on themselves. They locked down very early.

Some of the numbers above should be observed with caution. This became obvious to me when I tried to see if there was and relationship between reported Covid-19 tests and the order countries are listed above. The number of tests claimed make no sense. The UK claims 1,871,439 tests per million of population. Hong Kong, 1,871,439. Singapore,1,452,241. The USA, 1,233,257, There are many other high test rate claims, mostly from countries with unreliable systems. It's possible that the test rates for Hong Kong and Singapore are correct.

When you find test rates of about 70% of the population that seems more like a real number. Sweden, 709,761. Australia, 615,371. Both countries had serious outbreaks and needed to test strongly. On the other hand, Taiwan always seemed to have the virus under control and only conducted 20331 tests.